Saturday, August 25, 2012

2012 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

Standard league, 4 pts/TD

Tier 1:
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Tom Brady, NE
3. Drew Brees, NO
Aaron Rodgers was by far the best QB in the league last year, 4600yds with 45 TD to only 6 INT. Plus, he runs too. All three QBs in this tier are extremely accurate, have lots of weapons and rarely turn over the ball. All 1st round picks.

 Tier 2:
4. Matthew Stafford, DET
5. Cam Newton, CAR
6. Michael Vick, PHI
Stafford broke out last year with 5000+ yds and 41 TDs, the Lions offense will only get better with Titus Young having a full training camp and adding Ryan Broyles (if healthy) and Leshoure coming back from injury. Cam Newton rushed for a NFL record 14 TDs last year as a rookie, but struggled as a passer. I expect the rushing TDs to come down, but the passing stats should improve with a full offseason. Michael Vick had a terrible year last year resulting from some injuries and the failure to find the endzone. When healthy, expect him to put up monster stats, but will take a lot of hits and may struggle to make it through the season without injuries.

Tier 3:
7. Peyton Manning, DEN
8. Eli Manning, NYG
9. Tony Romo, DAL
10. Matt Ryan, ATL
11. Phillip Rivers, SD
12. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Peyton Manning when healthy has always been a fantasy monster. He was the most accurate QB in the league and avoided getting hit by getting rid of the ball quicker than anyone else. But after missing all of last year with a serious neck injury, will he regain the arm strength and be able to take a hit? Based on the preseason, I am confident that he has. Tony Romo and Eli Manning both struggle with inconsistency but both have the weapons and upside to be top 5 QBs. Rivers was one of the best QBs in fantasy every year before last year's debacle. Expect a bounceback, but the offense is shifting to more of a run-first attack and Gates is not the weapon he once was. Matt Ryan has two of the best WRs in the league, and the Falcons are moving to a move pass-heavy attack. Good upside from the former #1 overall pick, but needs to be let loose to become a top-5 fantasy QB. Ben Roethlisberger struggles with injuries and the offense is conservative, so has never been the fantasy football stud like he is in the NFL.

Tier 4:
13. Jay Cutler, CHI
14. Matt Schaub, HOU
15. Robert Griffin III, WSH
16. Joe Flacco, BAL
17. Carson Palmer, OAK
18. Josh Freeman, TB
Jay Cutler has always been inconsistent, just when you think he is turning it throws a critical interception. He will have weeks that will win you a match-up, but hard to trust week in, week out. Schaub was a fantasy stud when he threw for 4000 yards a few years back, but with so many great passers, has just become average. RGIII has a game perfect for fantasy, good arm, great scrambler, but with his ADP he won't end up on any of my teams. Expect a transition phase to the speed of the NFL. Flacco was once a big sleeper of mine, but hasn’t proven he can take the next step, limited upside. However, Flacco was pretty unlucky last year and will be much improved. Palmer is a reliable average QB, won’t kill you but won't win you many weeks. Freeman was a breakout QB two years ago, but took a step back last year. Expect a bounceback, but the Bucs should run a lot which caps his upside.

Tier 5:
19. Andy Dalton, CIN
20. Sam Bradford, STL
21. Andrew Luck, IND
22. Russell Wilson, SEA
23. Alex Smith, SF
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF
25. Jake Locker, TEN
 Dalton had a great rookie year, very accurate passer and but besides AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham, weapons are very limited. Sam Bradford, former #1 overall pick, great talent but has struggled with injuries and WR corps is seriously lacking. Andrew Luck is an amazing prospect, the best to come out of college since Peyton Manning, but he doesn't have a lot of weapons and rookies usually struggle to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Russell Wilson looks amazing in pre-season and should start the season as the starter. He is also still a rookie, but has great upside if he can carry over his pre-season success into the regular season. Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick don't hurt you, but they will never win you a week either. Jake Locker recently won the starting job in TEN and he has a lot of upside, but is still very inconsistent and has never had a season with a completion percentage more that 59% even in college.

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