Friday, August 10, 2012

Dwight Howard Trade Reaction

The saga I thought would never end....

He wants out...he wants to stay.....Orlando lied to him and he wants out again. For six months, that's all the basketball media was talking about. Where's Dwight going? When's will this Dwight-mare end?

Well, last night out of nowhere, a monster four-team trade and Dwight goes to none other than the Lakers!!!!

Lakers acquire C Dwight Howard, F/C Earl Clark and G Chris Duhon from the Magic in a 4-team deal, Nuggets receive G/F Andre Iguodala, Magic acquire G Arron Afflalo, F Al Harrington, F Moe Harkless, F/C Nikola Vucevic, F Josh McRoberts, G/F Christian Eyenga, three future first-round picks and two future second-round picks, 76ers acquire C Andrew Bynum and G/F Jason Richardson.
Let's take a look at each of the teams after this massive trade:

The Los Angeles Lakers get Dwight Howard, Earl Clark and Chris Duhon, give Andrew Bynum, Josh McRoberts and Christian Eyenga

PG: Steve Nash
SG: Kobe Bryant
SF: Metta World Peace
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Dwight Howard

The rich get richer, with Dwight Howard and Steve Nash on board, the Lakers are far and away the team to beat in the Western Conference. Dwight is a huge upgrade defensively, but fantasy wise, there isn't much difference. The addition of Dwight might take some rebounds away from Pau Gasol, but the amount of pressure that Howard will command will make everyone more efficient. Dwight, assuming the back is no longer an issue, is a surefire 1st round pick, while Kobe and Gasol are early 2nd rounders, and Nash is probably a 3rd rounder.

The Denver Nuggets get Andre Iguodala give Arron Affalo, Al Harrington

PG: Ty Lawson/Andre Miller
SG: Andre Iguodala/Wilson Chandler
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler
PF: Kenneth Faried
C: Javale McGee

Here's when the trade gets super interesting...
Andre Iguodala was held back offensively in PHI, where he was asked to be more of a defensive presence and the 76ers ranked 3rd last in possessions/game. However, Denver was 2nd in possessions/game (almost 6 more per game than Philly) and they will ask AI to score much more than his disappointing 12.4 ppg last year. With Ty Lawson and Andre Miller, Iguodala won't be asked to be a facillitator like he was in Philly so expect a drop in assists, but he should score somewhere in the order of 17 ppg. Overall, it's probably a wash for his fantasy value.
Now that Harrington is in Orlando, Kenneth Faried will get all the PF minutes he can handle. A great rebounder and defensive presence, Faried really broke out after Nene was shipped to Washington. In the 31 games after the all-star break, Faried averaged 11.7 points, 8.4 reb, 1.0 blocks, 0.9 steals with 60.1 FG%, in only 25.2 minutes per game. Expect a major step forward next year, he could easily deliver 4th round value next year.

The Philadelphia 76ers get Andrew Bynum, Jason Richardson give Andre Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Evan Turner/Nick Young
SF: Jason Richardson/Dorell Wright
PF: Spencer Hawes/Thaddeus Young
C: Andrew Bynum

Andrew Bynum lands in a great situation for his fantasy value. Last year, Bynum averaged 18.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 1.9 blocks, 0.5 steals, 56% FG% and 69% FT%. As the 76ers only real go to scorer, I can see Bynum scoring 22-25 ppg this year with 12+ boards and 2+ blocks.
Jrue Holiday is another big winner. After a great 2nd year in which he averaged 14 ppg and 6.5 apg 4.0 rpg, last year he struggled statistically becuase AI had the ball in his hands so much. Now Holiday is by far the best facillitator on the roster and should push 7 assists per game and I wouldnt be shocked if he cracks the top 10 PGs.
However, for the SG, SF and PF positions, the Bynum and Richardson acquisitions really crowds the roster. Evan Turner would be a good breakout candidate but will be splitting time with Nick Young. Jason Richardson and Dorell Wright will be a fantasy headache at SF. Spencer Hawes, who was a fantasy star when healthy last year, will probably be shifted to PF and be splitting time with Thaddeus Young.

The Orlandon Magic get Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, Josh McRoberts and Christian Eyenga give Dwight Howard, Earl Clark, Chris Duhon.

PG: Jameer Nelson
SG: Arron Afflalo
SF: Hedo Turkoglu/Al Harrington
PF: Glen Davis/Al Harrington
C: Nikola Vucevic/Gustavo Ayon

Glen Davis was a fantasy monster when Dwight Howard was sidelined last year, averaging 16.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 1.4 steals in 31.4 minutes over 12 April games. With Dwight gone, Big Baby should average 32+ minutes/night and 15ppg, 8rpg, and 1.5 steals is definitely attainable.
I like Nikola Vucevic's talent, and at only 21 years old, he has a good future ahead of him. Splitting time with fellow sleeper Gustavo Ayon, this situation appears to be frustrating for fantasy owners. Over the season, I expect Vucevic to separate himself from Ayon and eventually earn the starting job. He's a good late round pick for dynasty leagues.
Finally, the biggest winner in this whole trade might be Arron Afflalo. Afflalo has a great game for fantasy as he contributes in all 8 categories. He has demonstrated the ability to take over games in Denver especially when Gallinari was injured and now in Orlando, he will be asked to carry a large scoring load. In 35+ minutes per game as the #1 option, Afflalo should score 18-20 ppg, will approach 2 3-pt/game with his usual good percentages and decent boards, assists, blocks and steals. The former NCAA 1st team All-American has the talent to be a star in the NBA and is finally in the position to be able to reach his potential.

No comments:

Post a Comment